Thailand may not meet rice export target next year

Thailand may miss rice export target next year Thailand’s rice exports may fall just short of 8 million tonnes in 2025 due to a number of factors, including a lag in production and rising global supplies. Charoen Laothamatas, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said rice exports next year are expected to fall short of the previously set target of 8.2 million tonnes. Several risk factors could affect Thailand’s rice exports next year, including a 1.4 percent increase in global rice stocks to around 528 million tonnes due to the La Nina weather phenomenon that has brought enough rain for rice production, a lack of investment in research and development of rice varieties that has kept Thailand’s yields lower than those of other major rice exporters including Vietnam, India and China, high production costs and the possibility that India will lift its rice export restrictions later this year. Thailand needs to change its rice policy by keeping up with changes in global demand, especially focusing on producing glutinous rice, and investing more in research and development to increase productivity to compete in the global market. If Thailand does not take immediate action, its market share among major rice exporters could decline and China could emerge as the world’s top rice exporter due to its heavy investment in developing high-yielding rice varieties and advanced farming technologies, while many other countries are moving towards policies to boost domestic production. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that India will remain the world’s largest rice exporter in 2025, with exports expected to reach 18 million tonnes, followed by Thailand (7.5 million tonnes), Vietnam (7.5 million tonnes) and Pakistan (5.6 million tonnes). Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said that the country’s rice exports will still meet the 8.2 million tons target set by the Ministry of Commerce and if rice exports average 700,000 tons/month, Thailand can surpass the target of 9 million tons and earn more than 5.3 billion USD due to continued demand from the country’s major export markets. Of these, the Philippines and Indonesia are expected to increase rice imports to 4.7 million tons and 4.3 million tons, respectively. However, close monitoring of India’s rice policies is necessary as New Delhi may reconsider rice export restrictions after increased monsoon rains in the country led to rice stocks reaching 140 million tons. This will affect global rice exports as Indian rice is cheaper than other rice exporting countries. #thailand

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